Press Releases
04 November 2008
Letter of response to Graham Stringer MP proving that 9 out 10 would not need to pay the charge
CEX/JW4 November 2008
Graham Stringer MP
Constituency Office
MANCAT North Manchester College
Rochdale Road
Manchester M9 4AF
Dear Graham
TIF: Congestion Charge
You asked for evidence relating to statements that 9 out of 10 people would not have to pay a congestion charge.
Our assessment of the number of journeys that would be charged is based upon transport modelling of trips made in Greater Manchester on an average week day. The modelling represents the majority of journeys as two-way trips between a person’s home and another destination.
The modelling is for 2016 and is based upon the national standard DfT TEMPRO population and employment growth forecasts, and is then validated through surveys. Given that a trip would only incur a charge if it crosses a charging location in the direction of peak flow and in peak times, the modelling takes account of:
• How the trip is made;
• Where the trip starts from;
• Where the trip ends;
• When the trip starts; and
• When the trip ends.
The models encompass all modes of transport. The remainder of this analysis focuses on car and road-based goods trips during an average week day.
The modelling found that (to, from and within Greater Manchester) there are forecast (under TEMPRO growth) to be 2.2 million daily one and two-way trips in 2016 once the full TIF programme is implemented.
The analysis of the proportion of trips that would result in a payment is shown below:
Trips Not Charged - 2.04 million
Charged Trips - 0.18 million
Total Trips - 2.22 million
Charged as a % of total - 8.1%
Around 2 million one and two-way trips would not incur a charge because they:
• would not cross a charging location at any time; and/or
• would not cross a charging location in the direction of congestion flows; and/or
• would not cross a charging location at peak times.
The impact of charging on the number of vehicles crossing the cordons is a key factor in determining revenues. As explained in the Funding and Finance Supporting Paper and the papers submitted to AGMA in advance of last Friday’s meeting, for the purposes of assessing financial revenues a more cautious view of the impact of the proposed charging scheme on cordon crossings has been taken. This means that for financial planning purposes the package is assumed to reduce cordon crossings by 35% rather than the 27% forecast by the transport models. This is reflected in the projected 160,000 daily chargeable users 2015/16 referred to in the Funding and Finance Supporting Paper published on the GMPTE website as part of the consultation exercise.
Given the above analysis it can be seen that more than 90% of car and road-based goods vehicle trips would not incur a charge i.e. on an average day, i.e. 9 out of 10 trips would not incur a charge.
This analysis obviously excludes other people in Greater Manchester who are making journeys on weekdays but would not incur a charge because they are using public transport, walking or cycling.
I hope this provides you with the information that you need.
Yours sincerely
Sir Howard Bernstein
Clerk to GMPTA
